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A hard copy of the Conference Handbook will be available in the registration package as well as a USB stick with the abstract book, programme, town hall listing and Exchanges 70
Scientific Programme
Monday (QNLM): Ocean’s Role in the Climate System
10:00 - Opening Ceremony (Chair Lixin Wu)
Keynote:
11:00 - Thomas Stocker: Anthropogenic Climate Change: Time to Focus on the Ocean
11:45 - Group Photo
14:00 - Plenary 1 (Chair Fangli Qiao)
14:00 - Monika Rhein: The ocean’s role in the energy cycle
14:20 - Laurent Bopp: The ocean carbon sink, today and tomorrow: what we know, what we don’t know
14:40 - Ray Schmitt: The Global Water Cycle
15:00 - Cheng, Lijing: Historical ocean heat content estimation and the implication for assessing Earth's energy budget
15:20 – Questions and discussion
15:30 – Coffee/tea break
16:00 - Parallel sessions
1.1 Energy (Chairs: Karina von Schuckman, Mathew Palmer, Kevin Trenberth)
16:00 | Insights into Earth’s energy imbalance from multiple sources | Trenberth, Kevin |
16:15 | A new concept for space-time integration of surface turbulent heat fluxes and analysis of long-term change in basin-scale surface flux | Gulev, Sergey |
16:30 | Sea level accelerations, the recent surface warming slowdown and the planet's energy balance | Ponte, Rui |
16:45 | An idealized 50 years decomposition of the impact changing surface conditions have on ocean subsurface temperature trends | Lago, Veronique |
17:00 | Global ocean vertical heat flux and its bidecadal change | Liang, Xinfeng |
17:15 | Attribution of observed Southern Ocean warming and freshening using a new Super Ensemble | Swart, Neil |
1.2 Carbon (Chairs: Pedro Monteiro, Curtis Deutsch)
16:00 | Investigating the mechanisms behind the reinvigoration of the Southern ocean carbon sink | Séférian, Roland |
16:15 | Temporal and Spatial Scale-Sensitivities of Air-Sea CO2 Fluxes in the Southern Ocean | Monteiro, Pedro |
16:30 | Current and Future Ocean Carbon Uptake - Carbon Hot Spot: A new field program to understand the role of eddies in carbon sequestration within the Kuroshio Extension region | Bishop, Stuart |
16:45 | Updated global trends in surface ocean pCO2: decadal to multidecadal timescales | Fay, Amanda |
17:00 | Sources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors | Rodgers, Keith |
17:15 | Estimation of anthropogenic carbon in global ocean using transit time distribution and evaluation of its uncertainties based on ocean model output | He, Yanchun |
1.3 Water (Chairs: Paul Durack, Sonia Seneviratne, Olga Zolina)
16:00 | Connections between oceans and continents via the atmospheric water cycle | Dirmeyer, Paul |
16:15 | Dry gets drier, wet gets wetter? Why ocean responses do not translate into land climate behaviour | Greve, Peter |
16:30 | Current changes in precipitation and its extremes across wet and dry regions | Liu, Chunlei |
16:45 | North Atlantic Salinity as a Predictor of Extreme Precipitation Events in the US Midwest | Li, Laifang |
17:00 | Changes in European extreme precipitation over the last decades | Zolina, Olga |
17:15 | Arctic Freshwater Export: Status, Mechanisms, and Prospects | Haine, Thomas |
17:45 – Buses leave for Hyatt
19:00 – Icebreaker reception (Hyatt)
Tuesday (Hyatt): Climate Variability and Predictability, Chair: Noel Baker
09:00 - Plenary 2:
09:00 - Harry Hendon: Progress in Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Prediction
09:20 - Rowan Sutton: Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability
09:40 - Kim Cobb: Paleo-constraints on recent trends in tropical Pacific climate
10:00 - Iuliia Polkova: Predictive skill for regional interannual steric sea level and mechanisms for predictability
10:20 – Questions and discussion
10:30 – Coffee/tea break
11:00 - Poster Session
14:00 - Parallel sessions
2.1 Intraseasonal to Interannual (Chairs: Aida Diongue, Rodney G. Martinez, Michael Mcphaden)
14:00 | The Role of Reversed Equatorial Zonal Transport in Terminating an ENSO Event | Chen, Han-Ching |
14:15 | Tropical Rainfall, Rossby Waves and Regional Winter Climate Predictions | Knight, Jeff |
14:30 | Characterization of soil moisture variability over South America: linkages to remote sources of variability | Spennemann, Pablo |
14:45 | The MISVA project: From a better understanding of the intraseasonal and synoptic variability toward forecast | Janicot, Serge |
15:00 | Tropical atmospheric forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation | Yu, Bin |
15:07 | Intraseasonal SST and Precipitation Variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon: Impact of Ocean Mixed Layer Depth | Li, Yuanlong |
15:14 | Understanding and Predicting Subseasonal Extreme Events: Relationship between Warm Airmass Transport into the Upper Polar Atmosphere and Cold Air Outbreaks in Winter | Yu, Yueyue |
15:21 | ENSO Diversity: Past, Present, and Future. Causes and Consequences of the 2015-16 El Niño | McPhaden, Michael |
2.2 Decadal (Chairs: Paco Doblas Reyes, Yochanan Kushnir)
14:00 | The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisited | Newman, Matthew |
14:15 | A novel use of climate predictions to identify unprecedented climate extremes | Thompson, Vikki |
14:30 | Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: A linear baroclinic response to surface heating | Ghosh, Rohit |
14:45 | The role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on extreme climate conditions over North America and Europe | Ruprich-Robert, Yohan |
15:00 | Southern Ocean deep convection in global climate models: a driver for variability of subpolar gyres and Drake Passage transport on decadal timescales | Behrens, Erik |
15:15 | Impacts of Ocean Model Parameterizations on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Variability in the Community Earth | Danabasoglu, Gokhan |
2.3 Centennial to Millennial (Chairs: Pascale Braconnot, Axel Timmermann, Kim Cobb)
14:00 | Storm Tracks during the Deglaciation | Valdes, Paul |
14:15 | Dependence of the AMOC stability on the background climate | Hu, Aixue |
14:30 | Understanding the bipolar seesaw through ocean energetics | Oliver, Kevin |
14:45 | Simulated response of the mid-Holocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in ECHAM6-FESOM/MPIOM | Shi, Xiaoxu |
15:00 | The global monsoon response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 past1000 simulations | Man, Wenmin |
15:15 | Timescales of AMOC collapse | Jackson, Laura |
15:30 – Coffee/ tea break
16:00 – Poster session
17:00 - Keynote: Magdalena Balmaseda: Seamless Prediction and the interactions of time scales, earth system components and institutions
18:00 –19:00 - Town halls 1-3
1: Introduction to YMC and WPOS
2: Ocean observing Satellites - future plans
3: PAGES Townhall Meeting
19:30 – 20:30 - Town halls 4-6
4: Indo-Pacific teleconnection
5: WCRP Future 6: Glacier Melt
Wednesday (Hyatt): Understanding Ocean and Climate Processes, Chair: Jonathan Durgadoo
09:00 - Plenary 3:
09:00 - Rym Msadek: Role of ocean dynamics in climate variability on interannual to multidecadal time scales
09:20 - Raffaele Ferrari: Mixing and Stirring
09:40 - Weidong Yu: Upwelling and Frontal Zones - Example of Complexity in the Monsoonal Indian Ocean
10:00 - Paulo Calil: Frontal Instabilities in the South Atlantic Subtropical Front and their Impact on Phytoplankton Blooms
10:20 – Questions and discussion
10:30 – Coffee/tea break
11:00 - Poster Session
14:00 - Parallel Sessions
3.1 Mixing and Stirring: (Chairs: Marina Levy, Baylor Fox Kemper, Sonya Legg)
14:00 | Influence of mesoscale and submesoscale dynamics on the seasonal cycle of the ocean mixed layer depth | Treguier, Anne Marie |
14:15 | Variability of submesoscale dynamics in the North Atlantic ocean. | Le Sommer, Julien |
14:30 | Geographical distribution and anisotropy of the oceanic inverse kinetic energy cascade | Liu, Zhi Liang |
14:45 | Wave turbulence interaction induced vertical mixing and its effects in ocean and climate models | Qiao, Fangli |
15:00 | Ocean-atmosphere interactions on the submesoscale field of the Southern Ocean and its associated impacts on the mixed layer variability | du Plessis, Marcel |
15:15 | Internal wave driven mixing: An energetically consistent replacement for the Osborn relationship in ocean mixing parameterizations | Hallberg, Robert |
3.2 Ocean and Climate Dynamics: (Chairs: Shoshiro Minobe, Matthew England)
14:00 | Ocean-atmosphere coupling in changing climate: SST pattern dynamics | Xie, Shang-Ping |
14:15 | The Meridional Mode in an Idealized Aquaplanet Model: Dependence on the Mean State | Zhang, Honghai |
14:30 | Nonlinearities in the evolutional distinctions between El Niño and La Niña flavors | Karumuri, Ashok |
14:45 | Climate Variability and Predictability Over the Indo-Pacific Ocean: Indonesian Throughflow variations in the eastern Indonesian seas during the onsets of the 2014 and 2015 El Niño | Yuan, Dongliang |
14:52 | Ocean and cryosphere interactions: Tropical Pacific Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss | Wang, Kun |
15:00 | Tropical Atlantic Variability and Predictability - PREFACE project | Keenlyside, Noel |
15:07 | Coordinated ocean-ice reference experiments (core-ii): an assessment of antarctic circumpolar current and southern ocean meridional overturning circulation during 1958-2007 | Farneti, Riccardo |
15:14 | On Extratropical Frontal- and Meso-scale Air-Sea Interaction | Shoshiro Minobe |
15:21 | How is the atmospheric boundary layer responding to the dynamic new Arctic Ocean? | Ganeshan, Manisha |
3.3 Upwelling and Frontal Zones:(Chairs: Enrique Curchitser, Mauricio Mata)
14:00 | Frontal structure and transport in southern Drake Passage from ocean gliders | Ruan, Xiaozhou |
14:15 | Interannual Variability of Eastern Indian Ocean Upwelling: Local versus Remote Forcing | Chen, Gengxin |
14:30 | Eastern boundary Upwelling systems (EBUS): interannual variability in the eastern south Pacific and biological response | Escribano, Ruben |
14:45 | Effects of ocean surface gravity waves: on turbulence, climate, and frontogenesis. | Fox Kemper, Baylor |
15:00 | Eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS): Intraseasonal to interannual variability of the Angola Current inferred from moored and shipboard measurements | Kopte, Robert |
15:15 | Assessing different hypotheses about the origin of Benguela upwelling warm bias | Krebs, Martin |
15:30 – Coffee/tea break
16:00 - Poster Session
17:00 - Keynote: Jennifer MacKinnon: The elephant and the mouse: multiple scales of ocean dynamic
18:00 – 19:00 – Town halls 7-8
7: HighResMIP 8: CLIVAR Science Plan
19:30 – 20:30 – Town halls 9-10 9: FutureEarth 10: Ocean and Climate Modeling
Thursday (Hyatt): The Ocean in a Warmer World, Chair: Sarah Kang
09:00 Plenary 4:
09:00 - Mike Alexander: Modes of sea surface temperature variability in a warmer world
09:20 - Fan Wang: Multi-scale and long-term variability of the western boundary currents in the warming up oceans
09:40 - Seung-Ki Min: Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion
10:00 - Anny Cazenave: Present-day sea level changes at global and regional scales
10:20 – Questions and discussion
10:30 – Coffee/tea break
11:00 - Poster Session
14:00 - Parallel sessions
4.1 Climate Modes: (Chairs: Krishna AchutaRao, Eric Guilyardi)
14:00 | Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-enabled Earth System Model | Zhu, Jiang |
14:15 | Understanding extreme El Niño: the curious case of the 2015/16 event | Santoso, Agus |
14:30 | Tropical Atlantic decadal variability and how it is affected by external forcing | Milinski, Sebastian |
14:45 | An Ensemble Approach to Understanding ENSO Diversity and Climate Change | Stevenson, Samantha |
15:00 | Two dominant boreal summer tropical-extratropical teleconnection modes in the Northern Hemisphere in a Warmer World | Lee, June-Yi |
15:15 | What controls the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming? | Li, Tim |
4.2 Sea Level: (Chairs: Aimee Slangen, Benoit Meyssignac)
14:00 | Dominant modes of natural decadal sea-level variability in the indian ocean | Lengaigne, Matthieu |
14:15 | Upper-ocean thermal expansion and contribution to sea level change since 1970: from global mean rise to regional patterns | Domingues, Catia Motta |
14:30 | Pacific Sea Level Rise Patterns and Global Surface Temperature Variability | Yin, Jianjun |
14:45 | Sea level variability around Japan during the 20th century simulated by a regional ocean model | Sasaki, Yoshinori |
15:00 | Annual sea level changes on the north american northeast coast: influence of local winds and barotropic motions | Piecuch, Christopher |
15:15 | Future projection of ocean wave climate change: a community approach to global and regional wave downscaling | Mori, Nobuhito |
4.3 Boundary Current Systems: (Chairs: Sabrina Speich, Toshio Suga)
14:00 | Seasonal to interannual variability of the meridional heat fluxes in the South Atlantic | Sato, Olga |
14:15 | Response of biological production to the strengthening of the upwelling-favorable Trade Winds in the Northern Humboldt Current System: A Modeling Study | Mogollón Aburto, Rodrigo |
14:30 | Can the OFES and CESM models reproduce long Rossby waves? | Polito, Paulo Simionatto |
14:45 | Downscale the future changes of the Indonesian Throughflow | Feng, Ming |
15:00 | Semi-annually alternating exchange of intermediate waters east of the Philippines | Lina Song |
15:15 | The 2014 warm anomalies observed in the eastern boundary current system off southern California | Nam, SungHyun |
15:30 – Coffee/tea break
16:00 - Poster Session and Town halls 11 11: Ocean Observing
17:00 - Keynote: Wenju Cai: ENSO and greenhouse warming
19:00 - Banquet
Friday (Hyatt), Chair: Dunxin Hu
09:00 - Plenary 5: Climate Information and Sustainable Development (Chair: Martin Visbeck)
09:00 - Fei Chai: Coastal and Marine Ecosystems in a Changing World
09:20 - Arame Tall: Crafting appropriate institutional frameworks for climate services: the experience of the National frameworks for climate services in Africa
09:40 - Panel Discussion:
Panelists: Guy Brasseur, Fei Chai, Arame Tall, Thorsten Kiefer
10:30 – Coffee/ tea break
11:00 - Plenary 6: Future of Climate and Ocean Science (Chair: Annalisa Bracco)
11:00 - Matt Collins: The Role of Climate Dynamics in Future Climate Change
11:20 - Nicolas Gruber: Climate, carbon and ocean biogeochemistry at a time of change: Recent insights, emerging trends, and future outlook
11:40 - Guy Brasseur: Understanding the multi-scale dynamics of the climate system: Challenges for WCRP in the Future
12:00 - Panel Discussion:
Panelists: In-Sik Kang, Lynne Talley, Lixin Wu, Matt Collins, Nicolas Gruber, Guy Brasseur
12:30 - Reflections on the week - Detlef Stammer
Best Poster Awards
Closing remarks - Guy Brasseur
13:30 - Conference ends