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Scientific Programme

 

Monday (QNLM): Ocean’s Role in the Climate System

 

10:00 - Opening Ceremony (Chair Lixin Wu)

 

Keynote:

 

11:00 - Thomas Stocker: Anthropogenic Climate Change: Time to Focus on the Ocean

 

11:45 - Group Photo

 

14:00 - Plenary 1 (Chair Fangli Qiao)

 

14:00 - Monika Rhein: The ocean’s role in the energy cycle

 

14:20 - Laurent Bopp: The ocean carbon sink, today and tomorrow: what we know, what we don’t know

 

14:40 - Ray Schmitt: The Global Water Cycle

 

15:00 - Cheng, Lijing: Historical ocean heat content estimation and the implication for assessing Earth's energy budget

 

15:20 – Questions and discussion

 

15:30 – Coffee/tea break

 

16:00 - Parallel sessions

 

1.1 Energy (Chairs:  Karina von Schuckman, Mathew Palmer, Kevin Trenberth)

 

 

 16:00

Insights into Earth’s energy imbalance from multiple sources

Trenberth, Kevin

16:15

A new concept for space-time integration of surface turbulent heat fluxes and analysis of long-term change in basin-scale surface flux

Gulev, Sergey

16:30

Sea level accelerations, the recent surface warming slowdown and the planet's energy balance

Ponte, Rui

16:45

An idealized 50 years decomposition of the impact changing surface conditions have on ocean subsurface temperature trends

Lago, Veronique

17:00

Global ocean vertical heat flux and its bidecadal change

Liang, Xinfeng

17:15

Attribution of observed Southern Ocean warming and freshening using a new Super Ensemble

Swart, Neil

 

1.2 Carbon (Chairs: Pedro Monteiro, Curtis Deutsch)

 

 

16:00

 

 

Investigating the mechanisms behind the reinvigoration of the Southern ocean carbon sink

 

 

Séférian, Roland

 

 

16:15

 

 

Temporal and Spatial Scale-Sensitivities of Air-Sea CO2 Fluxes in the Southern Ocean

 

 

Monteiro, Pedro

 

 

16:30

 

 

Current and Future Ocean Carbon Uptake - Carbon Hot Spot: A new field program to understand the role of eddies in carbon sequestration within the Kuroshio Extension region

 

 

Bishop, Stuart

 

 

16:45

 

 

Updated global trends in surface ocean pCO2: decadal to multidecadal timescales

 

 

Fay, Amanda

 

 

17:00

 

 

Sources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors

 

 

Rodgers, Keith

 

 

17:15

 

Estimation of anthropogenic carbon in global ocean using transit time distribution and evaluation of its uncertainties based on ocean model output

 

 

He, Yanchun

 

 

1.3 Water (Chairs: Paul Durack, Sonia Seneviratne, Olga Zolina)

 

 

16:00

 

Connections between oceans and continents via the atmospheric water cycle

 

 

Dirmeyer, Paul

 

16:15

 

Dry gets drier, wet gets wetter? Why ocean responses do not translate into land climate behaviour

 

 

Greve, Peter

 

16:30

 

Current changes in precipitation and its extremes across wet and dry regions

 

 

Liu, Chunlei

 

16:45

 

North Atlantic Salinity as a Predictor of Extreme Precipitation Events in the US Midwest

 

 

Li, Laifang

 

17:00

 

Changes in European extreme precipitation over the last decades

 

 

Zolina, Olga

 

17:15

 

Arctic Freshwater Export: Status, Mechanisms, and Prospects

 

 

Haine, Thomas

 

17:45 – Buses leave for Hyatt

 

19:00 – Icebreaker reception (Hyatt)

 

Tuesday (Hyatt): Climate Variability and Predictability,  Chair: Noel Baker

 

09:00 - Plenary 2:

 

09:00 - Harry Hendon: Progress in Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Prediction

 

09:20 - Rowan Sutton: Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability

 

09:40 - Kim Cobb: Paleo-constraints on recent trends in tropical Pacific climate

 

10:00 - Iuliia Polkova: Predictive skill for regional interannual steric sea level and mechanisms for predictability

 

10:20 – Questions and discussion

 

10:30 – Coffee/tea  break

 

11:00 - Poster Session 

 

14:00 - Parallel sessions

 

2.1 Intraseasonal to Interannual (Chairs:  Aida Diongue, Rodney G. Martinez, Michael Mcphaden)

 

 

 14:00

 

 

The Role of Reversed Equatorial Zonal Transport in Terminating an ENSO Event

 

 

Chen, Han-Ching

 

 

14:15

 

 

Tropical Rainfall, Rossby Waves and Regional Winter Climate Predictions

 

 

Knight, Jeff

 

 

14:30

 

 

Characterization of soil moisture variability over South America: linkages to remote sources of variability

 

 

Spennemann, Pablo

 

 

14:45

 

 

The MISVA project: From a better understanding of the intraseasonal and synoptic variability toward forecast

 

 

Janicot, Serge

 

 

 

15:00

 

 

Tropical atmospheric forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation

 

 

Yu, Bin

 

 

15:07

 

 

Intraseasonal SST and Precipitation Variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon: Impact of Ocean Mixed Layer Depth

 

 

Li, Yuanlong

 

 

15:14

 

 

Understanding and Predicting Subseasonal Extreme Events: Relationship between Warm Airmass Transport into the Upper Polar Atmosphere and Cold Air Outbreaks in Winter

 

 

Yu, Yueyue

 

 

15:21

 

 

ENSO Diversity: Past, Present, and Future. Causes and Consequences of the 2015-16 El Niño

 

 

McPhaden, Michael

 

 

 

2.2 Decadal (Chairs:  Paco Doblas Reyes, Yochanan Kushnir)

 

 

14:00

 

The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisited

 

 

Newman, Matthew

 

 

14:15

 

A novel use of climate predictions to identify unprecedented climate extremes

 

 

Thompson, Vikki

 

14:30

 

Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: A linear baroclinic response to surface heating

 

 

Ghosh, Rohit

 

14:45

 

The role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on extreme climate conditions over North America and Europe

 

 

Ruprich-Robert, Yohan

 

15:00

 

Southern Ocean deep convection in global climate models: a driver for variability of subpolar gyres and Drake Passage transport on decadal timescales

 

 

Behrens, Erik

 

15:15

 

Impacts of Ocean Model Parameterizations on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Variability in the Community Earth

 

 

Danabasoglu, Gokhan

 

2.3 Centennial to Millennial (Chairs: Pascale Braconnot, Axel Timmermann, Kim Cobb)

 

 

 14:00

 

 

Storm Tracks during the Deglaciation

 

 

Valdes, Paul

 

 

14:15

 

 

Dependence of the AMOC stability on the background climate

 

 

Hu, Aixue

 

 

14:30

 

 

Understanding the bipolar seesaw through ocean energetics

 

 

Oliver, Kevin

 

 

14:45

 

 

Simulated response of the mid-Holocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in ECHAM6-FESOM/MPIOM

 

 

Shi, Xiaoxu

 

 

15:00

 

 

The global monsoon response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 past1000 simulations

 

 

Man, Wenmin

 

 

15:15

 

 

Timescales of AMOC collapse

 

 

Jackson, Laura

 

 

15:30 – Coffee/ tea break

 

16:00 – Poster session

 

17:00 - Keynote:  Magdalena Balmaseda: Seamless Prediction and the interactions of time scales, earth system components and institutions

 

18:00 –19:00 -  Town halls 1-3

1: Introduction to YMC and WPOS

2: Ocean observing Satellites - future plans

3: PAGES Townhall Meeting

 

19:30 – 20:30 - Town halls 4-6

4: Indo-Pacific teleconnection

5: WCRP Future 6: Glacier Melt

 

 

Wednesday (Hyatt): Understanding Ocean and Climate Processes, Chair: Jonathan Durgadoo

 

09:00 - Plenary 3:

 

09:00 - Rym Msadek: Role of ocean dynamics in climate variability on interannual to multidecadal time scales

 

09:20 - Raffaele Ferrari: Mixing and Stirring

 

09:40 - Weidong Yu: Upwelling and Frontal Zones - Example of Complexity in the Monsoonal Indian Ocean

 

10:00 - Paulo Calil: Frontal Instabilities in the South Atlantic Subtropical Front and their Impact on Phytoplankton Blooms

 

10:20 – Questions and discussion

 

10:30 – Coffee/tea break

 

11:00 -  Poster Session

 

14:00 - Parallel Sessions

 

 

3.1 Mixing and Stirring:  (Chairs: Marina Levy, Baylor Fox Kemper, Sonya Legg)

 

 

14:00

 

Influence of mesoscale and submesoscale dynamics on the seasonal cycle of the ocean mixed layer depth

 

 

Treguier, Anne Marie

 

 

14:15

 

Variability of submesoscale dynamics in the North Atlantic ocean. 

 

 

Le Sommer, Julien

 

 

14:30

 

Geographical distribution and anisotropy of the oceanic inverse kinetic energy cascade

 

 

Liu, Zhi Liang

 

14:45

 

Wave turbulence interaction induced vertical mixing and its effects in ocean and climate models

 

 

Qiao, Fangli

 

15:00

 

Ocean-atmosphere interactions on the submesoscale field of the Southern Ocean and its associated impacts on the mixed layer variability

 

 

du Plessis, Marcel

 

15:15

 

Internal wave driven mixing: An energetically consistent replacement for the Osborn relationship in ocean mixing parameterizations

 

 

Hallberg, Robert

 

 

3.2 Ocean and Climate Dynamics: (Chairs: Shoshiro Minobe, Matthew England)

 

 

 14:00

 

 

Ocean-atmosphere coupling in changing climate: SST pattern dynamics

 

 

Xie, Shang-Ping

 

 

14:15

 

 

The Meridional Mode in an Idealized Aquaplanet Model: Dependence on the Mean State

 

 

Zhang, Honghai

 

 

14:30

 

 

Nonlinearities in the evolutional distinctions between El Niño and La Niña flavors

 

 

Karumuri, Ashok

 

 

14:45

 

 

Climate Variability and Predictability Over the Indo-Pacific Ocean: Indonesian Throughflow variations in the eastern Indonesian seas during the onsets of the 2014 and 2015 El Niño

 

 

Yuan, Dongliang

 

 

14:52

 

 

Ocean and cryosphere interactions: Tropical Pacific Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss

 

 

Wang, Kun

 

 

15:00

 

 

Tropical Atlantic Variability and Predictability - PREFACE project

 

 

Keenlyside, Noel

 

 

15:07

 

 

Coordinated ocean-ice reference experiments (core-ii): an assessment of antarctic circumpolar current and southern ocean meridional overturning circulation during 1958-2007

 

 

Farneti, Riccardo

 

 

15:14

 

 

On Extratropical Frontal- and Meso-scale Air-Sea Interaction

 

 

Shoshiro Minobe

 

 

15:21

 

 

How is the atmospheric boundary layer responding to the dynamic new Arctic Ocean?

 

 

Ganeshan, Manisha

 

 

 

3.3 Upwelling and Frontal Zones:(Chairs: Enrique Curchitser, Mauricio Mata)

 

 14:00

Frontal structure and transport in southern Drake Passage from ocean gliders

Ruan, Xiaozhou

14:15

Interannual Variability of Eastern Indian Ocean Upwelling: Local versus Remote Forcing

Chen, Gengxin

14:30

Eastern boundary Upwelling systems (EBUS): interannual variability in the eastern south Pacific and biological response

Escribano, Ruben

14:45

Effects of ocean surface gravity waves: on turbulence, climate, and frontogenesis.

Fox Kemper, Baylor

15:00

Eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS): Intraseasonal to interannual variability of the Angola Current inferred from moored and shipboard measurements

Kopte, Robert

15:15

Assessing different hypotheses about the origin of Benguela upwelling warm bias

Krebs, Martin

 

 

15:30 – Coffee/tea break

 

16:00 - Poster Session

 

17:00 - Keynote:  Jennifer MacKinnon: The elephant and the mouse: multiple scales of ocean dynamic

 

18:00 – 19:00 – Town halls 7-8

7: HighResMIP 8: CLIVAR Science Plan

 

19:30 – 20:30 – Town halls 9-10 9: FutureEarth 10: Ocean and Climate Modeling

 

Thursday (Hyatt): The Ocean in a Warmer World, Chair: Sarah Kang

 

09:00 Plenary 4:

 

09:00 - Mike Alexander: Modes of sea surface temperature variability in a warmer world

 

09:20 - Fan Wang: Multi-scale and long-term variability of the western boundary currents in the warming up oceans

 

09:40 - Seung-Ki Min: Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion

 

10:00 - Anny Cazenave: Present-day sea level changes at global and regional scales

 

10:20 – Questions and discussion

 

10:30 – Coffee/tea break

 

11:00 - Poster Session

 

14:00 - Parallel sessions

 

 

4.1 Climate Modes: (Chairs: Krishna AchutaRao, Eric Guilyardi)

 

 

 14:00

 

 

Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-enabled Earth System Model

 

 

Zhu, Jiang

 

 

14:15

 

 

Understanding extreme El Niño: the curious case of the 2015/16 event

 

 

Santoso, Agus

 

 

14:30

 

 

Tropical Atlantic decadal variability and how it is affected by external forcing

 

 

Milinski, Sebastian

 

 

14:45

 

 

An Ensemble Approach to Understanding ENSO Diversity and Climate Change

 

 

Stevenson, Samantha

 

 

15:00

 

 

Two dominant boreal summer tropical-extratropical teleconnection modes in the Northern Hemisphere in a Warmer World

 

 

Lee, June-Yi

 

 

15:15

 

 

What controls the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming?

 

 

Li, Tim

 

 

 

4.2 Sea Level: (Chairs: Aimee Slangen, Benoit Meyssignac)

 

 

14:00

 

Dominant modes of natural decadal sea-level variability in the indian ocean

 

 

Lengaigne, Matthieu

 

14:15

 

Upper-ocean thermal expansion and contribution to sea level change since 1970: from global mean rise to regional patterns

 

 

Domingues, Catia Motta

 

14:30

 

Pacific Sea Level Rise Patterns and Global Surface Temperature Variability

 

 

Yin, Jianjun

 

14:45

 

Sea level variability around Japan during the 20th century simulated by a regional ocean model

 

 

Sasaki, Yoshinori

 

15:00

 

Annual sea level changes on the north american northeast coast: influence of local winds and barotropic motions

 

 

Piecuch, Christopher

 

15:15

 

Future projection of ocean wave climate change: a community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

 

 

Mori, Nobuhito

 

4.3 Boundary Current Systems: (Chairs: Sabrina Speich, Toshio Suga)

 

 

14:00

 

 

Seasonal to interannual variability of the meridional heat fluxes in the South Atlantic

 

 

Sato, Olga

 

 

14:15

 

 

Response of biological production to the strengthening of the upwelling-favorable Trade Winds in the Northern Humboldt Current System: A Modeling Study

 

 

Mogollón Aburto, Rodrigo

 

 

14:30

 

 

Can the OFES and CESM models reproduce long Rossby waves?

 

 

Polito, Paulo Simionatto

 

 

14:45

 

 

Downscale the future changes of the Indonesian Throughflow

 

 

Feng, Ming

 

 

15:00

 

Semi-annually alternating exchange of intermediate waters east of the Philippines

 

 

Lina Song

 

 

 15:15

 

 

The 2014 warm anomalies observed in the eastern boundary current system off southern California

 

 

Nam, SungHyun

 

 

15:30 – Coffee/tea break

 

16:00 - Poster Session and Town halls 11 11: Ocean Observing

 

17:00 - Keynote: Wenju Cai: ENSO and greenhouse warming

 

19:00 - Banquet

 

 

Friday (Hyatt), Chair: Dunxin Hu

 

09:00 - Plenary 5: Climate Information and Sustainable Development (Chair: Martin Visbeck)

 

09:00 - Fei Chai: Coastal and Marine Ecosystems in a Changing World

 

09:20 - Arame Tall: Crafting appropriate institutional frameworks for climate services: the experience of the National frameworks for climate services in Africa

09:40 - Panel Discussion:

 

Panelists: Guy Brasseur, Fei Chai, Arame Tall, Thorsten Kiefer

 

10:30 – Coffee/ tea break

 

11:00 - Plenary 6: Future of Climate and Ocean Science (Chair: Annalisa Bracco)

 

11:00 - Matt Collins:  The Role of Climate Dynamics in Future Climate Change

 

11:20 - Nicolas Gruber: Climate, carbon and ocean biogeochemistry at a time of change: Recent insights, emerging trends, and future outlook

 

11:40 - Guy Brasseur: Understanding the multi-scale dynamics of the climate system: Challenges for WCRP in the Future

 

12:00 - Panel Discussion:

 

Panelists: In-Sik Kang, Lynne Talley, Lixin Wu, Matt Collins, Nicolas Gruber, Guy Brasseur

 

12:30 - Reflections on the week - Detlef Stammer

Best Poster Awards

Closing remarks - Guy Brasseur


13:30 -  Conference ends


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